Thursday 16 November 2017

Brexit Briefing - SPS Regulations

As part of a continuing series of posts examining the Single Market and Norway/Flexcit option (as expressed in a "Brexit Briefing" blog post by Pete North). this post will examine the claims made for EEA Sanitary & Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) regulations (i.e. regulations covering animal and plant health) and their relation to global standards.

WTP SPS Agreement

The WTO SPS agreement encourages the use of international SPS standards. Article 3.1 states "Members shall base their sanitary or phytosanitary measures on international standards, guidelines or recommendations". Article 3.4 identifies three organisations as having particular relevance:
UNECE also provide agricultural quality standards and is party to an agreement with Codex (the "Geneva Understanding") in order to avoid duplication of work. 

However, Article 3.3 of the WTO SPS Agreement provides a get-out: "Members may introduce or maintain sanitary or phytosanitary measures which result in a higher level of sanitary or phytosanitary protection than would be achieved by measures based on the relevant international standards, guidelines or recommendations".  

EU SPS Regulations

EEA SPS regulations make up 1,507 of the 5,584 EEA regulations in force, i.e. approximately 27% (as of 16th November 2017). It is true that the great majority of these SPS regulations are based on international standards (primarily from Codex and UNECE). However, as explained in Derrick Wilkinson's blog, the EU imposes severe restrictions or bans on a wide range of plant protection products (PPPs), veterinary pharmaceuticals (VPs) and biotechnologies.

This point has attracted media coverage recently: an EU Commission decision on Basmati rice, slashed allowable levels of the pesticide Tricyclazole (used for 30 years) to a hundredth of the current legal level; US Trade Secretary Wilbur Ross described EU regulations as "unscientific", referring to the ban on chlorine-washed chicken and also Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO).

Commenting on the speech by US Trade Secretary Ross,  Alan Beattie in the FT notes that the EU has lost several cases on food regulation at the WTO to the US, and also comments: "Brussels’ cautious interpretation of the “precautionary principle” retards growth and innovation and is exploited by protectionist lobbies. Its food regulations, which frequently disadvantage farmers in developing countries, often bear the marks of public prejudice and domestic lobbying rather than science."  

EU SPS Enforcement

The  WTO SPS agreement also covers Control, Inspection and Approval Procedures (Article 8 & Annex C). Unsurprisingly, the EU has erected a highly regulated system of food safety measures for imports from third countries (i.e. outside the single Market).

Products of animal origin (POAO), i.e. live animals and animal products including meat and dairy, imported from third countries require EU approval of the third country and establishments. Products must be accompanied by relevant veterinary certificates and imported via a nominated Border Inspection Post (BIP) where they are subject to:
(i) documentary check - health certificates and any accompanying laboratory test results;
(ii) identity check - container seals, packaging of the goods, labelling and health marking;
(iii) physical check - packaging will be opened, sight, smell, taste assessment (where appropriate), samples may also be taken for laboratory assessment. The frequency of POAO physical checks (governed by Commission Decision 94/360/EC) is:
▪ 20 per cent for meat and fish;
▪ 50 per cent for poultry meat, honey and dairy products;
▪ 1-10 per cent for inedible POAO, such as hay.

Non-animal products (i.e. plants and plant products) from third countries may be subject to import checks, determined on the basis of risk analysis. In addition, specific controls are applied to certain non-animal products originating from certain countries 
(i) Some products must have a phytosanitary certificate under Directive 2000/29/EC, guaranteeing they have been  properly inspected; are free from harmful organisms; and conform with relevant plant health regulations. 
(ii) Some products are classified as 'High-risk' products of non-animal origin under Regulation EC/669/2009. These products must be imported via a Designated Port of Entry (DPE) to undergo checks similar to those required for products of animal origin (i.e. documentary, identity and physical checks at a set percentage rate).

The  WTO SPS agreement encourages members to enter into equivalence agreements (Article 4), which can reduce non-tariff barriers for third countries. Switzerland copies all EU SPS regulations and has an equivalence agreement with the EU allowing all agricultural products to be traded under the same conditions as intra-EU trade. The EU recognises other third country regimes such as Canada and New Zealand as essentially equivalent and lower inspection rates apply.

By contrast, trade within the EU/Single Market is mostly exempt from these checks. EU SPS regulations are enforced via national agencies (Food Safety Agency (FSA) in the UK) who directly monitor establishments. Live animals must travel with a veterinary health certificate (although there are specific exemptions for horses). A limited number of plant products originating within the EU are also subject to health controls under Directive 2000/29/EC, requiring a "plant passport" once they have passed all EU checks.

Future UK-EU trade

Outside the Single Market, UK exporters will face third country barriers. Meat and dairy exports will be heavily impacted. However, given UK convergence with EU SPS regulations and the established track record of the FSA in monitoring UK establishments, an EU refusal to approve UK establishments and recognise equivalence in line with agreements enjoyed by other third countries (e.g. Canada) would constitute discrimination under WTO law.

Non-animal products should see little impact - while all third country imports may be subject to inspections based on risk analysis, there seems little reason to believe that EU member states customs authorities will suddenly deem UK products as high risk and divert resources away from inspecting known sources of risk.

An acrimonious "No Deal" impasse could see the EU could drag its heels on approvals and equivalence agreement.  But it should be borne in mind that since the UK is mirroring EU law, trade barriers will apply in both directions. The UK currently imports 3 times more than it exports to the EU in the agrifood sector. In any case, high tariffs in this sector would severely diminish UK-EU agrifood trade. UK response should be a mix of import substitution and pivot to global agricultural trade.

Executing such a pivot on agricultural trade (primarily meat & dairy) is not at all straightforward given the complex and interwoven nature of food supply chains. The UK would need (i) a carefully designed subsidy scheme to support farmers and facilitate switching of activity; (ii) lowering of agricultural tariff barriers (via TRQs and FTAs) and non-tariff barriers (liberalised SPS regime and equivalence agreements) with the rest of the world.

Conclusions

Contrary to claims made by supporters of Norway/Flexcit option, adopting EU SPS regulations is not just adopting global standards and we cannot influence EU SPS non-tariff barriers at a "global" level. As Alan Beattie put it in his FT article "product regulation is not global; international laws to constrain national rules are weak". US Trade Secretary Ross also made clear that Brexit presents us with a distinct choice in this sector.

We could stay inside the protectionist EU SPS regime which provides barriers to trade with the rest of the world, but avoids barriers in trade with the EU (primarily for live animal, meat & dairy products). This avoids adding another issue to the Irish border, but at present no solution seems to satisfy the EU/Ireland short of separating Northern Ireland from the UK.

Alternatively we can break out of the EU regime and trade freely with the rest of the world, while facing similar barriers to agricultural trade with the EU as other third countries. Many EU FTA's founder on EU protectionism in agriculture. Developing economies are locked out of the EU's market. A Swiss-USA FTA was abandoned because the Swiss are tied to the EU SPS regime and could not offer liberalisation on agriculture.

For me, breaking free from EU SPS regulations is the obvious choice. While a creative solution is needed for the Irish border, creative thinking is already needed to address many Irish border concerns beyond SPS regulations. The positive opportunities are simply too good to turn down.

Monday 6 November 2017

Brexit Briefing - Technical Regulations

As part of a continuing series of posts examining the Single Market and Norway/Flexcit option (as expressed in a "Brexit Briefing" blog post by Pete North). this post will examine the claims made for EEA technical regulations and their relation to global standards.

EEA Technical Regulations versus Global standards

A central argument for the Norway/Flexcit option is the claim that EU/EEA regulations are increasingly based on global standards and since an independent UK would base domestic regulations on the same global standards, there is no point in leaving the Single Market. While this means the UK remains a "rule-taker" with respect to the EU, it is also claimed that the UK can use its new freedom in international organisations to shape global standards and so influence the EU/EEA regulations it is still subject to. A seductive argument, but is it true ?

EEA technical regulations make up 1,972 of the 5,591 regulations in the EEA acquis, i.e. approximately 35% (as of 6th November 2017). The EU's 2016 standards bodies report provides a measure of how aligned EEA regulations are with global standards: 58% of CENELEC standards cited in EEA technical regulations are identical to IEC standards; 24% of CEN standards cited in EEA technical regulations are identical to ISO.

The US Trade Department Report for 2016 provides insight to the EU's attitude to international technical standards. While in theory the EU allows producers to use international (non-EU) standards to demonstrate product safety, in practice it is prohibitively difficult and expensive. US exporters feel compelled to use harmonised European (EN) standards "...even if the U.S. products are produced according to relevant international standards providing similar or even higher safety levels."

The same report also illustrates that even the US has little influence over harmonised European (EN) standards  "..when a U.S. producer uses an EN it is likely using a standard that has been developed through a process in which it had no meaningful opportunity to participate. This is particularly the case for SMEs and other companies that do not have a European presence."

This reality is is in stark contrast to the claims of "global regulations" used to support the Norway/Flexcit option. EEA technical regulations are EU-centric rather than global and are not open to outside influence or directed by global bodies (if anything, the EU looks to upload its standards to ISO rather than the reverse). The EU erects barriers against use of recognised non-EU international standards. WTO TBT Agreement Article 2.4 (encouraging use of international standards) does not appear to be the redundancy notice for the EU's Single Market that Norway/Flexcit advocates suggest.

Continued UK participation in European standards organisations

BSI (British Standards Institute) aims to retain membership of CEN and CENELEC post-Brexit, even after leaving the Single Market (EFTA states including non-EEA Switzerland, EU accession states and recently Turkey are also members with voting rights). membership would provide the UK with a continuing voice and vote on European (EN) standards, but requires EN standards are adopted as national standards and any conflicting standards are withdrawn.

Similarly, UKAS (UK Accreditation Service) are aiming for continued membership of EA (European Accreditation) in addition to membership of global accreditation bodies ILAC and IAF. This would maintain recognition of UKAS as the UK National Accreditation Body and recognition of certificates issued by UKAS and and UKAS accredited organisations (i.e. UK Notified Bodies) throughout the EU.

However, both CEN/CENELEC membership criteria and EA membership criteria requires EU/EFTA membership, or candidate for EFTA/EU membership with established target date for accession. The UK has rejected EFTA membership and the Single Market, so continued UK membership of CEN/CENELEC and EA must be open to question.

Future UK-EU trade relationship

EEA membership or even just membership of CEN/CENELEC requires continued harmonisation with EU standards, without divergence.  However, being locked into EN standards prevents the UK from using or recognising alternative international standards - which in turn raises technical barriers with non-EU countries, notably the US. Nor are EN standards superior to other standards. For example, Andrew Chapman's blog post on Technical Barriers to Trade looked closely at anti-slip footwear regulation (EN ISO 13287:2012) and found evidence that the test is not a reliable indicator of the safety of footwear, so much so that the British Health and Safety Laboratory uses an alternative human-based ramp test.

Some argue that because the EU is our largest market (outside the domestic UK market), we must inevitably remain yoked to the EU's technical standards and regulations. But why not allow or recognise other international standards provided they meet the essential safety objectives ? Businesses focussed on the EU market will continue to use EN standards and demand the same from their supply chain, but other businesses may develop with a different focus. In some instances or sectors, the UK domestic market and/or overseas markets may exceed the value and demand of the EU market. It seems to me we should let the market decide which standards to use. While some commentators worry about  a lack of "regulatory coherence" countries such as South Korea (who have FTA's with both the EU and the USA) seem to be managing quite nicely.

Conformity Assessment is the main anxiety of Norway/Flexcit advocates. But as I explored in an EU Question blog post, this is easily navigable by using EN standards and an EU-based "importer". Some sectors have "pre-approval" requirements (e.g. pharmaceuticals, chemicals etc), but the solution is similar, with registrations to be held by a recognised EU based representative.  For the small number of manufactured products that required third party assessment, UK notified bodies can be used provided they have a subsidiary or sub-contract relationship with an EU-based body. Consignment checking is based on risk analysis and it is unlikely that products/manufacturers/importers with a good track record of compliance will suddenly face a higher inspection rate - even without a UK-EU agreement.

A Mutual Recognition Agreement on Conformity Assessment will allow UK-based Notified Bodies to continue to be recognised in the EU (and vice versa), without needing a sub-contract or subsidiary relationship (note that WTO TBT Agreement Article 6.3 encourages members to enter into MRA's on conformity assessment).  A regulatory co-operation agreement covering market surveillance would continue existing co-operation and assist targeting of consignment checking by customs authorities. Such agreements are common to FTAs and are found in CETA (Canada's FTA with the EU).

A Canada style FTA with the EU would seem to offer the best solution for technical regulations. Regulatory freedom from EU-centric technical regulations combined with agreements that minimise trade friction.

Wednesday 1 November 2017

Brexit Briefing - How much EU law ?

As discussed in my previous post, I will be writing a series of blogs examining the claims made for the Single Market and explaining my thoughts on the Norway/Flexcit option, as expressed in a recent blog post by Pete North.

First up is the old chestnut, how much EU law are EEA states subject to. At present, EEA laws in force (5,594) compared with EU laws in force (20,849) is just under 27%.  But then looking at EU Directives that apply to EEA provides a figure of around 70%. Which tells us these numbers do not add to our understanding as Christopher Howarth discussed on his blog a couple of years ago.

Andrew Chapman also examined EEA law as a proportion of EU law in a May 2016 blog post, with a close look at a whole range of studies, including attempts to quantify impact across policy areas and weight the impact of different legislation. Chapman's conclusion feels about right to me : "For myself, I would say that under the EEA, we would have to adopt around half of EU law. Given our opt-outs from the euro, Schengen, and the area of Freedom, Security and Justice, I would say that we currently are required to adopt around, say, 80% of EU law. So, if we were to leave the EU, join EFTA, and remain in, or re-join the EEA, I would say that we would have to continue to adopt well over half, possibly getting closer to two-thirds, of what we currently adopt." 

Perhaps the only sensible way to look at this question is to consider what areas of governance we would be still subject to and what areas do we gain freedom.

The EEA agreement covers the "four freedoms" - goods, services, capital, and of course free movement of people. So the rules and regulations of all trade and commercial activity are dictated by the EU. This also applies to all trade with third countries, which makes it impossible to negotiate on the removal of non-tariff barriers with third countries. For example, Protocol 12 of the EEA agreement states that the EU will take the lead in negotiating Mutual Recognition Agreements (an important tool in removing regulatory barriers to trade) with third countries.

Well at least with EFTA EEA we gain freedom from the EU common external tariff. Except that the North/Flexcit vision is that we continue to align with the EU’s tariffs in an attempt to avoid the burden of Rules of Origin. This would also mean the UK is unable to sign new Free Trade Agreements. So much for an independent UK trade policy.

In addition to the four freedoms, the EEA agreement covers a number of flanking or horizontal policies. Adopting EU law in areas such as Consumer Protection, Environment, Health and Safety at Work, Labour Law, Equal Treatment for Men and Women is mandatory in order to trade under the EEA agreement.  EFTA EEA Governments have also taken the opportunity to sign up to (via EEA protocols) and spend taxpayers money on, all sorts of EU policies in fields as diverse as Civil Protection, Anti-Discrimination and Family Policy, Public Health etc.

Well at least with EFTA EEA we gain freedom from the Common Fisheries Policy and Common Agricultural Policy. Except that the North/Flexcit vision is that we would stay signed up to these policies for another 10 years or so, while we  design and implement new UK policies. Don't tell the farmers and the fishermen.

The EEA agreement does at least exclude the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights and Monetary Union. Although the UK already had opt-outs from these as an EU member. So no gains there.

Foreign Policy and Defence are not covered by the EEA agreement. But even as we prepare to leave the EU, the UK Government is surrendering Defence autonomy and signing up for EU Defence Union initiatives. This has not got the attention it deserves as many have been fooled into thinking this will not apply to the UK once we leave the EU. In fact, the Government is aiming for an on-going relationship inside the EU's Common Security & Defence Policy - the model for this type of relationship is none other than EFTA EEA state Norway's "second country" status..

Norwegian eurosceptics also complain that the EEA agreement increases in scope over time. It is not difficult to foresee the EU wishing to see "a level playing field across the Single Market" (code for centralised Brussels legislation) in areas like taxation and welfare benefits in the near future. The EU has already signaled it's displeasure at Ireland's low tax regime. Harmonised welfare benefits has been under discussion for some time, it seems likely that the EU will use calls for reform to free movement to pursue this agenda. The EU's article 50 negotiating guidelines require the UK to agree to "safeguards against unfair competitive advantages through, inter alia, tax, social, environmental and regulatory measures and practices". The EU agenda is crystal clear in these spheres.

I can see there may be a case for continuing with EU  law and ECJ rulings in a few isolated cases, aviation (to retain membership of ECAA) and Euratom being the two obvious examples. But the Norway / Flexcit option accepts huge swathes of EU law and it is difficult to see what new freedom it provides. It appears to have all the disadvantages of EU membership, minus the voting rights and "seat at the EU top table".

Nor would the Norway/Flexcit option seem to provide any reassurance in terms of avoiding further EU integration, given that: (i) the EU have already stated their intention for EFTA states to become "EU Associate Members" and replace the current EEA agreement and Swiss bi-laterals; (ii) Hard-core Remainers like Nick Clegg have already stated their aim of retaining Single Market membership as part of a long-term goal of rejoining the EU as associate members.

Do we trust our political class to resist moves to expand the scope of the EEA agreement ? To avoid signing up for all sorts of other EU initiatives via EEA protocols ? to avoid a stealthy transition from Single Market to Associate Membership at some point ?  I certainly don't, especially as May's Government seem to be lining us up for such a betrayal even as we are supposed to be leaving the EU - by delivering an "Establishment" Brexit. I can see little difference between the Ukraine model the Government seems to be seeking and the Norway/Flexcit model - both leave us subject to huge swathes of EU law and vulnerable to re-incorporation to "the project" of EU political union.

The more I look at Brexit, the more convinced I become that our future relationship with the EU must be based on a significant degree of separation - a CETA-based FTA plus military co-operation limited to NATO and some limited agreements on information sharing. Anything else leads us straight back to where we came from.